Sunday, May 25, 2008

Estimates On How Much Companies Will Spend To Resolve The Options Backdating Issue

Writen by Mukund Mohan

First some answers on a not so serious note:

1. Make an estimate, then multiply by 2, divide by 0.134263 and take the square root after adding Pi times the estimate times 12.345

2. Use a dart board and get some friends together to change the numbers to very high 8 figures. The one person that hits the same estimate range on the dart board 3 times is the closest to the estimate.

3. Take a wild swing and at the end of the report, cite the analyst firm IMTSU 2006 (I Made This Stuff Up).

There are 3 portions to the cost of resolving the options backdating issue:

1. Tangible costs - Regulatory fines and expenses - Internal investigation fees - Audit investigation fees - Documentation & restatement fees - Back tax dues and penalties and interest - Share holder lawsuits: Settlement fees, Defense fees

2. Intangible costs - Market capitalization loss - Employee turnover (not easy to guesstimate, but rest assured there will be some) - Internal & external communication expenses - (If delisted): stock appreciation opportunity costs

3. Variable expenses - Reduced revenue from customer becoming nervous about purchasing products

For the 3 companies we have worked with estimating $100 Million for a $3-5 Billion market capitalization in Tangible costs alone is on the average side.

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